We estimate a well-specified two-state regime-switching model for Danish stock returns. The <p> model identifies two regimes which have low return-low volatility and high return-high <p> volatility, respectively. The low return-low volatility regime dominated, except in a few, short <p> episodes, until...</p></p></p>

This paper describes a way to model a seasonally and irregularly peaking price dynamics, as that originated in commodity and energy markets, using a system of coupled nonlinear stochastic differential equations. The specific case of an electric power market is used to show which microeconomic...

Electricity prices are known to be very volatile and subject to frequent jumps due to system breakdown, demand shocks, and inelastic supply. Appropriate pricing, portfolio, and risk management models should incorporate these spikes. We develop a framework to price European-style options that are...

The aim of this book is to document, on a solid and convincing foundation, two public policy mistakes of the United States Government that have been extremely costly. First, the failure to combine stocks with long-term government bonds in the Social Security Trust Fund, the way other nations do,...

We show that fund-specific return skewness is associated with managerial skill and future hedge fund performance. Specifically, skewness in fund returns reflects managerial skill in avoiding large drawdowns. Using a new measure of investment skill that accounts for this managerial ability, we...

How fast should a security trade? To answer this question, we model the trading of a security via periodic batch auctions and study how market quality depends on the clearing frequency of the auctions. In our model, the optimal clearing frequency is determined by four factors: (1) the volatility...

Despite assumptions of mean-variance efficiency that underlie most asset pricing models, investors have shown a penchant for positive skewness. This study documents that the ratio of call option volume relative to total option volume is greatest for stocks with return distributions that resemble...

We investigate causality between returns on sovereign CDSs and bank equities for Poland between 2004 and 2014 to provide evidence on contagion between sovereign and banking sector risk pricing. We find some evidence of contagion from Polish sovereign CDS returns to bank equity returns during the...

We model portfolio weights as a function of latent factors that summarize the information in a large number of economic variables. This approach (hereafter diffusion index approach) offers the opportunity to exploit a much richer information base to improve portfolio selection. We use factor...