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conduct. Given that GDP figures are available with a significant delay central banks are increasingly using Nowcasting as a … useful tool for having an immediate perception of economic conditions. We develop a GDP growth Nowcasting exercise using a … compare their relative forecasting ability using the Giacomini and White (2004) test and find no significant difference in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012057262
This paper investigates the trade-off between timeliness and quality in nowcasting practices. This trade-off arises …. Our main finding from a historical nowcasting simulation based on euro area GDP is that the predictive power of the survey …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011848385
proposed model demonstrates a remarkable performance in short-term and medium-term forecasting. Using real-time GDP data since …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011853245
-real-time forecasting exercise we show that our model outperforms univariate benchmarks, and it does comparably with predictions of market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011432892
We analyze the performance of a broad range of nowcasting and short-term forecasting models for a representative set of … indicators that come from a comparable set of identical data. We show that nowcasting works well for the new EU countries because … nowcasting is on average somewhat larger. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012389263
Factor models feature prominently in the macroeconomic nowcasting literature, yet no clear consensus has emerged … data sets typically used in now- or forecasting applications are not sparse but dense. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013166086
-noise dynamic factor models, commonly used in macroeconomic forecasting and nowcasting. We show analytically and in Monte Carlo … estimation accuracy. Modestly increasing the noise level also accelerates convergence. A nowcasting exercise of euro area GDP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014321791
expected nonlinear effect of military action challenge the use of established nowcasting and shortterm forecasting …Forecasting economic activity during an invasion is a nontrivial exercise. The lack of timely statistical data and the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014476136
We tackle the nowcasting problem at the regional level using a large set of indicators (regional, national and … forecasting accuracy. Among the 10% best performing models for the short forecasting horizon, one fourth contain regional …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010531825
leverage a novel real-time dataset to conduct an out-of-sample forecasting exercise for U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP …). MF-BVARs are shown to provide an attractive alternative to surveys of professional forecasters for forecasting GDP growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011776834