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This paper evaluates whether publicly available daily news lead texts help nowcasting Swiss GDP growth. I collect …-based indicators. In a pseudo out-of-sample nowcasting exercise for Swiss GDP growth, the indicator outperforms a monthly Swiss … business cycle indicator if one month of information is available. Improvements in nowcasting accuracy mainly occur in times of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014374717
In this paper we use U.S. real-time vintage data and produce combined density nowcasts for quarterly GDP growth from a system of three commonly used model classes. The density nowcasts are combined in two steps. First, a wide selection of individual models within each model class are combined...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143776
autoregressive component. First, we compare the forecasting performance of the different MIDAS models in Monte Carlo simulation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143848
In this paper we describe Norges Bank's system for averaging models (SAM) which produces model-based density forecasts for Norwegian Mainland GDP and inflation. We combine the forecasts from three main types of models typically used at central banks: Vector autoregressive models, leading...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012144014
With recovery from the global financial crisis in 2009 and 2010, inflation emerged as a major concern for many central banks in emerging Asia. We use data observed at mixed frequencies to estimate the movement of Chinese headline inflation within the framework of a state-space model, and then...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012148654
Most macroeconomic indicators failed to capture the sharp economic fluctuations during the Corona crisis in a timely manner. Instead, alternative high-frequency data have been used, aiming to monitor the economic situation. However, these data are often only loosely related to the business cycle...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012546043
For the timely detection of business-cycle turning points we suggest to use mediumsized linear systems (subset VARs with automated zero restrictions) to forecast the relevant underlying variables, and to derive the probability of the turning point from the forecast density as the probability...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010233998
leverage a novel real-time dataset to conduct an out-of-sample forecasting exercise for U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP …). MF-BVARs are shown to provide an attractive alternative to surveys of professional forecasters for forecasting GDP growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011485951
-real-time forecasting exercise we show that our model outperforms univariate benchmarks, and it does comparably with predictions of market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011404639
Most macroeconomic indicators failed to capture the sharp economic fluctuations during the Corona crisis in a timely manner. Instead, alternative high-frequency data have been used, aiming to monitor the economic situation. However, these data are often only loosely related to the business cycle...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012395297