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-real-time forecasting exercise we show that our model outperforms univariate benchmarks, and it does comparably with predictions of market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011404639
Most macroeconomic indicators failed to capture the sharp economic fluctuations during the Corona crisis in a timely manner. Instead, alternative high-frequency data have been used, aiming to monitor the economic situation. However, these data are often only loosely related to the business cycle...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012395297
This paper introduces the OECD Weekly Tracker of economic activity for 46 OECD and G20 countries using Google Trends search data. The Tracker performs well in pseudo-real time simulations including around the COVID-19 crisis. The underlying model adds to the previous Google Trends literature in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012420946
macroeconomic forecasting. Controlling for the release dates of each of a set of indicators, we generated nowcasts of GDP growth for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011664042
This paper investigates the trade-off between timeliness and quality in nowcasting practices. This trade-off arises …. Our main finding from a historical nowcasting simulation based on euro area GDP is that the predictive power of the survey …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011846875
proposed model demonstrates a remarkable performance in short-term and medium-term forecasting. Using real-time GDP data since …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011732586
conduct. Given that GDP figures are available with a significant delay central banks are increasingly using Nowcasting as a … useful tool for having an immediate perception of economic conditions. We develop a GDP growth Nowcasting exercise using a … compare their relative forecasting ability using the Giacomini and White (2004) test and find no significant difference in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011771629
sogenannten "Nowcasting"-Modellen, deren Prognosegüte mit jedem neu verfügbaren, das deutsche Bruttoinlandsprodukt beeinflussenden …-up-Modellierung Nowcasting-Prognosen für das deutsche Bruttoinlandsprodukt ermöglicht. Hierbei bringt es mit der verwendeten Kombination von … Modellen einen neuen Ansatz in die aktuelle Literatur des Nowcasting für das deutsche Bruttoinlandsprodukt ein. Durch die …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011641149
sector or by the expenditure side) or whether a direct approach is more appropriate when it comes to forecasting GDP growth … computationally simple and can be easily implemented as a nowcasting tool. Finally, this method also allows retracing the driving …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010857342
autoregressive component. First, we compare the forecasting performance of the different MIDAS models in Monte Carlo simulation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010937989