The purpose of this paper is to examine the fiscal characteristics of the new members in the light of the requirements of the SGP and the criticisms levelled against the Pact and to see in what ways their initial conditions differ from those faced by the current euro zone countries in the run-up...

In this paper we analyse the impact of fiscal policy co-ordination in a monetary union on the size of the spending bias, inflation and the optimal degree of conservatism of the central bank. Our main result is that, when the fiscal authorities internalise the spillover effects originating from...

This paper revisits the paper 'Excessive deficits: sense and nonsense in the Treaty of Maastricht', co-authored with Giancarlo Corsetti and Nouriel Roubini and published during 2003 in Economic Policy. The first section of the paper addresses the problem that the exchange rate and inflation...

The EMU fiscal adjustment paths of the four Southern Europe members (Italy, Spain, Greece, and Portugal – SE-4) vary along two dimensions: a) cross-temporal (pre- and post-EMU accession) and b) cross-country. We account for the cross-temporal variation by distinguishing between the ‘hard’...

In this paper we review the European macroeconomic policy framework, and address the issue of setting safe deficit targets - targets that make it very unlikely that a country exceeds the 3 per cent ceiling of the Stability and Growth Pact. In this context, the scope for an increase in public...

The paper proposes a theoretical analysis illustrating some key policy trade-offs involved in the implementation of a rules-based fiscal framework reminiscent of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). The analysis offers some insights on the current debate about the SGP. Specifically, greater...

We analyse the performance of budgetary and growth forecasts of all stability and convergence programmes submitted by EU member states over the last decade. Differences emerge for the bias in budgetary projections across countries. As a second step we explore whether economic, political and...

The global slowdown has tested the effectiveness of the European institutional frameworks in supporting both stability and growth which led to a number of proposals for reform regarding the institutional design of the European Union and on the relationship between the goal of fiscal discipline...

We analyze motivations for, and possible alternatives to, the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). With regard to the former, we identify domestic policy failures and various cross-country spillover effects; with regard to the latter, we contrast an “economic-theory" perspective on optimal...

This paper evaluates the Stability and Growth Pact. After examining the rules in place and the experience so far, the Pact is analysed from a political economy perspective, focusing on the choice for so-called soft law and drawing inferences from characteristics of successful fiscal rules at the...