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The papers in this special issue of Mathematics and Computers in Simulation are substantially revised versions of the … under the Basel Accord: A Bayesian approach to forecasting value-at-risk of VIX futures, fast clustering of GARCH processes … dynamics of BRICS's country risk ratings and domestic stock markets, U.S. stock market and oil price, forecasting value …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010907434
We analyze the forecasting performance of small mixed frequency factor models when the observed variables share … transfer of information among indicators. We find that allowing for common trends improves forecasting performance over a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010933367
We analyze the forecasting performance of small mixed frequency factor models when the observed variables share … transfer of information among indicators. We find that allowing for common trends improves forecasting performance over a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010933377
We address the issue of modelling and forecasting macroeconomic variables using medium and large datasets, by adopting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010940885
interest about forecasting such imminent threats for economic stability. In this paper we propose a novel hybrid forecasting … Vector Regression (SVR) methodology that originates from machine learning. We test the forecasting ability of the proposed …-of-sample forecasting. Finally, we argue that this new methodology can be used as an early warning system for forecasting sudden house …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010942822
 We propose a new class of multivariate volatility models utilizing realized measures of asset volatility and covolatility extracted from high-frequency data. Dimension reduction for estimation of large covariance matrices is achieved by imposing a factor structure with time-varying conditional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011004389
We use factor augmented vector autoregressive models with time-varying coe¢ cients to construct a …nancial conditions index. The time-variation in the parameters allows for the weights attached to each …nancial variable in the index to evolve over time. Furthermore, we develop methods for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011019232
multi-step out-of-sample forecasting competition. It turns out that forecasts are improved substantially when allowing for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010958750
Information on economic policy uncertainty (EPU) does matter in predicting oil returns especially when accounting for omitted nonlinearities in the relationship between these two variables via a time-varying coefficient approach. In this work, we compare the forecastability of standard, Bayesian...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011214021
In this paper, we study main problems and practical issues of modeling and forecasting of macroeconomic variables in … variables and employ two forecasting methodologies (Waggoner and Zha (1999), Banbura, Giannone and Lenza (2014)) to construct … modeling and forecasting of macroeconomic variables and provide some policy recommendations to improve quality of statistical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011271682