distribution. As an empirical illustration, we use euro area data and compare the forecasting performance of the New Area …

The period of extraordinary volatility in euro area headline inflation starting in 2007 raised the question whether … provide more robust forecasts. We investigate this issue for forecasts from a range of short-term forecasting models. Our … for HICP headline inflation and HICP excluding food and energy. We investigate how forecast accuracy of the combination …

story-telling and policy analysis were in the forefront of applications since its inception, the forecasting perspective of … models are inferior in ex-ante forecasting a crisis. Surprisingly however, it turned out that not all but those models which … only detect the turning point of the Austrian business cycle early in 2008 but they also succeeded in forecasting the …

There has been increased interest in the use of "big data" when it comes to forecasting macroeconomic time series such … as private consumption or unemployment. However, applications on forecasting GDP are rather rare. In this paper we … incorporate Google search data into a Bridge Equation Model, a version of which usually belongs to the suite of forecasting models …

of floaters. In the first alternative simulation we assume a relatively high crude oil price equal to 100 USD (2010) per …4 with the higher oil price. In the second alternative simulation we explore the effects of opening the Barents Sea and …

data on the forecasting performance of the model is assessed. The Google data is found to yield modest improvements in … forecasting accuracy of the model. To the author’s knowledge, this is the first time the forecasting performance of the Google … mode of the posterior distribution of the hyperparameters, and this is found to improve the out-of-sample forecasting …

surface types. We finally show that our proposed model can also be effective in forecasting. We provide evidence that our … model significantly outperforms existing models in the forecasting of tennis match results. …

inflation for estimating an area-wide measure of the output gap. In the proposed multi-country framework we moreover allow for … the common euro area output gap component as a means to explaining movements in both output and inflation over time, the … an out-of-sample forecasting exercise, the paper shows that the proposed approach performs well as compared to other well …