the beginning of 2018. They also have performed well in forecasting the direction of inflation. In terms of the …This paper develops Area-wide Leading Inflation CyclE (ALICE) indicators for euro area headline and core inflation with … an aim to provide early signals about turning points in the respective inflation cycle. The series included in the two …

variables by aggregation. To investigate the potential gain in using such a large information set, we compare the forecasting …

to forecasting area-wide industrial production. To this end, we use various tests that are designed to compare competing …

In this paper we develop a small open economy model explaining the joint determination of output, inflation, interest …

matrix and averages model estimates across all data releases. Using standard forecasting and policy models to analyze … monetary authorities' reaction functions, we show that this simple method can improve forecasting performance and provide …

that asymmetries show up in their unconditional distribution, as well as in their unconditional copula. The VaR forecasting …

that, in this case, adding stochastic volatility can further improve the forecasting performance of a single-factor BVAR …

This paper provides an empirical comparison of various selection and penalized regression approaches for forecasting … various prior specification choices on the relative and overall forecasting performance of the methods. The data set is a …