Time invariance of factor loadings is a standard assumption in the analysis of large factor models. Yet, this assumption may be restrictive unless parameter shifts are mild (i.e., local to zero). In this paper we develop a new testing procedure to detect big breaks in these loadings at either...

Estimating covariance matrices is an important part of portfolio selection, risk management, and asset pricing. This paper reviews the recent development in estimating high dimensional covariance matrices, where the number of variables can be greater than the number of observations. The...

Estimating covariance matrices is an important part of portfolio selection, risk management, and asset pricing. This paper reviews the recent development in estimating high dimensional covariance matrices, where the number of variables can be greater than the number of observations. The...

This paper analyzes the ability of principal component regressions and Bayesian regression methods under Gaussian and double-exponential prior in forecasting the real house price of the United States (US), based on a monthly dataset of 112 macroeconomic variables. Using an in-sample period of...

The presence of cross-sectionally correlated error terms invalidates much inferential theory of panel data models. Recently work by Pesaran (2006) has suggested a method which makes use of cross-sectional averages to provide valid inference for stationary panel regressions with multifactor error...

This paper shows consistency of a two step estimator of the parameters of a dynamic approximate factor model when the panel of time series is large (n large). In the first step, the parameters are first estimated from an OLS on principal components. In the second step, the factors are estimated...

A method of principal components is employed to investigate nonlinear dynamic factor structure using a large panel data. The evidence suggests the possibility of nonlinearity in the U.S. while it excludes the class of nonlinearity that can generate endogenous fluctuation or chaos

We present new results for the likelihood-based analysis of the dynamic factor model that possibly includes intercepts and explanatory variables. The latent factors are modelled by stochastic processes. The idiosyncratic disturbances are specified as autoregressive processes with mutually...

In this paper we develop some econometric theory for factor models of large dimensions. The focus is the determination of the number of factors, which is an unresolved issue in the rapidly growing literature on multifactor models. We propose some panel C(p) criteria and show that the number of...