Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles played by the...

This paper analyses the feasibility of a monetary union within the Mercosur, focusing on cycle synchronicity. Three questions are addressed, concerning respectively the features of shocks hitting each member, the impact of exchange rate regime differences on countries’ responses and the share...

Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles played by the...

Im Mittelpunkt der Arbeit steht die theoretische und empirische Analyse von Angebot und Nachfrage auf den Im- und Exportmärkten. Sie ist mit dem Ziel verknüpft, die Reagibilität von Preisen und Mengen im Außenhandel in Bezug auf Änderungen des realen Wechselkurses und der wirtschaftlichen...

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groupsindustrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...

Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles played by the...

In this study we examine the dynamic interactions between credit growth and output growth using the spillover index approach of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012). Based on quarterly data on credit growth and GDP growth over the period 1957Q1-2012Q4 for the G7 countries we find that: i) spillovers...

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups: industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...

This paper examines the role of monetary policy (MP) as a driver of connectedness patterns in speculative activities in financial markets. Examining measures of speculation in four major markets including gold, equities, Treasury bonds and crude oil, we show that speculative activities can spill...

We solve a canonical, estimated, medium-sized, open-economy New Keynesian model, cast it into a small-scale population vector autoregression, and assess whether best-practice structural identifications detect textbook "overshooting" after a monetary policy hike-i.e., an instant real appreciation...