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We analyze fiscal rules within a Monetary Union in the presence of (i) asymmetric information about member states' potential output and, therefore, output gap and (ii) bail-out among member states. In our framework, bail-out lowers the scope for signalling (discrimination) by member states...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011714310
We argue that in an economy with downward nominal wage rigidity, the output gap is negative on average. Because it is more difficult to cut wages than to increase them, firms reduce employment more during downturns than they increase employment during expansions. This is demonstrated in a simple...
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Policymakers often use the output gap, a noisy signal of economic activity, as a guide for setting monetary policy. Noise in the data argues for policy caution. At the same time, the zero bound on nominal interest rates constrains the central bank's ability to stimulate the economy during...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013104578
.e. standard errors, unbiasedness and conditional inflation forecasts. Real-time estimates from univariate moving average filters … and from bivariate UOC models based on output and inflation are found to be rather uninformative. Extended models, which …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013320195
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are consistent with the behavior of inflation. We label these deviations the output gap. In order to pin-down the features … of the model, we evaluate the accuracy of real-time inflation forecasts from different model specifications. The version … that forecasts inflation best implies that after the 2011 sovereign debt crisis the output gap in the euro area has been …
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preference (RAP) as well as inflation avoidance preference (IAP) is established. And it is found that RAP is dominant over IAP …, thus confirming nonlinearities in reaction function which in the present case turns out to be concave in inflation and … and negative inflation and output gap differ over long time horizons thus confirming asymmetric policy preferences …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011965222