We study the properties of generalized stochastic gradient (GSG) learning in forward-looking models. We examine how the conditions for stability of standard stochastic gradient (SG) learning both differ from and are related to E-stability, which governs stability under least squares learning. SG...

We study informative advertising within a random-utility, non-localized competition model of product differentiation. In a symmetric equilibrium, advertisement is sub-optimal when product differentiation is small, and excessive otherwise. Increasing the number of firms may increase or decrease...

We analyse some practical aspects of implementing adaptive learning in the context of forward-looking linear models. In particular, we focus on how to set initial conditions for three popular algorithms, namely recursive least squares, stochastic gradient and constant gain learning. We propose...

Convention wisdom usually suggests that agents should use all the data they have to make the best possible prediction. In this paper it is shown that agents may sometimes be able to make better predictions by throwing away data. The optimality criterion agents adopt is the mean squared criterion.

This paper uses a model of boundedly rational learning to account for the observations of recurrent hyperinflations in the last decade. We study a standard monetary model where the fully rational expectations assumption is replaced by a formal definition of quasi-rational learning. The model...

This paper studies the informational content of elective teams in a dynamic agency framework with adverse selection. Two agents with different employment histories are paid their conditional expected marginal product. They observe their types (good or bad), and chooose between working together...

This Paper shows that price rigidity evolves in an economy populated by imperfectly rational agents who experiment with alternative rules of thumb. In the model, firms must set their prices in the face of aggregate shocks. The payoff depends on the level of aggregate demand, as well as on their...

This paper studies the price dynamics induced by strategic firm behaviour in the presence of consumer learning about the uncertain quality differential of the products offered by a duopoly. It is found that consumers learn slowly and also that prices converge slowly to full-information levels. A...

Confirmation bias refers to cognitive errors that bias one towards one's own prior beliefs. A vast empirical literature documents its existence and psychologists identify it as one of the most problematic aspects of human reasoning. In this paper, we present three related scenarios where...