the time of the election. We exploit this variation to analyze the causal effect of a divided conclave on conflict. We … find that an increase of one standard deviation in our measure of polarization raised the likelihood of internal conflict …We study the effect of divisions within the elite on the probability of internal conflict in the Papal States between …

the time of the election.We exploit this variation to analyze the causal effect of a divided conclave on conflict. We find … that an increase of one standard deviation in our measure of polarization raised the likelihood of internal conflict by …We study the effect of divisions within the elite on the probability of internal conflict in the Papal States between …

,and construct measures of polarization and fractionalization based on the cardinals’places of birth. The deaths of popes and … cardinals provide plausible exogenousvariation in the timing of the conclave and the composition of the Collegeof Cardinals …, which we exploit to analyze the causal effect of a divided conclaveon conflict. We find that an increase of one standard …

rivals of a different affiliation. The overall patterns of conflict in continental Europe as well as those between the …

ultimate determinants of conflict. However, fractionalization in all its demographic forms is endogenous in the long run. In … the relationship between fractionalization and the propensity of internal conflict statistically insignificant. Finally …

examine the roles of ethnicity and religion in conflict and war. Based on one theory, the Ottoman conquests were driven by the …

ultimate determinants of conflict. However, fractionalization in all its demographic forms is endogenous in the long run. In … the relationship between fractionalization and the propensity of internal conflict statistically insignificant. Finally …

rivals of a different affiliation. The overall patterns of conflict in continental Europe as well as those between the …