The conduct of monetary policy, the term structure of interest rates and the structure of the economy in the UK have changed over the post-WWII period. We model the interaction between the macroeconomy and financial markets using a time-varying VAR augmented with the factors from the yield...

The announced primary objective of the European Central Bank is price stability. While no restrictive reference is given to how the goal should be reached, such a mandate can be thought as a concern to stabilize some relevant macroeconomic aggregates. Accordingly, we frame ECB monetary policy in...

The New-Keynesian Phillips curve plays a central role in modern macroeconomic theory. A vast empirical literature has estimated this structural relationship over various postwar full-samples. While it is well know that in a New-Keynesian model a weak central bank response to inflation generates...

This paper re-examines the empirical evidence on the price puzzle and proposes a new theoretical interpretation. Using structural VARs and two different identification strategies based on zero restrictions and sign restrictions, we find that the positive response of price to a monetary policy...

This paper re-considers the empirical relevance of the Lucas critique using a sticky price model in which a weak central bank response to inflation generates equilibrium indeterminacy. The model is calibrated on the magnitude of the historical shift in the Fed's policy rule and is capable of...

The New-Keynesian Phillips curve plays a central role in modern macroeconomic theory. A vast empirical literature has estimated this structural relationship over various postwar full-samples. While it is well know that in a New-Keynesian model a `weak' central bank response to inflation...

Most analyses of the U.S. Great Moderation have been based on structural VAR methods, and have consistently pointed towards good luck as the main explanation for the greater macroeconomic stability of recent years. Based on an estimated New-Keynesian model in which the only source of change is...

This paper documents a new stylized fact of the greater macroeconomic stability of the U.S. economy over the last two decades. Using 131 monthly time series, three popular statistical methods and the forecasts of the Federal Reserve’s Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we...

This paper investigates the empirical relevance of a new framework for monetary policy analysis in which decision makers are allowed to weight differently positive and negative deviations of inflation and output from the target values. The specification of the central bank objective is general...