We propose a new approach to the study of stock returns. We develop a simple model to show that, in the long run, the average rate of return on the market portfolio equals the average growth rate of income plus an average payout rate measuring the quantity of financial resources distributed or...

We propose methods to compute confidence bands for the fundamental values of stocks and corporate bonds. These methods take into account uncertainty about future cash flows and about the discount factors used to discount the cash flows. We use them to assess the current degree of...

We derive a canonical representation for the no-arbitrage discrete-time term structure models with both observable and unobservable state variables, popularized by Ang and Piazzesi (2003). We conduct a specification analysis based on this canonical representation and we analyze how alternative...

We propose a general method for the Bayesian estimation of nonlinear no-arbitrage term structure models. The main innovations we introduce are: 1) a computationally efficient method, based on deep learning techniques, for approximating no-arbitrage model-implied bond yields to any desired degree...

We conduct an empirical analysis of sovereign bond spreads for a selected number of euro area countries. We analyze several methodologies to measure and to assess the relative importance of three components of sovereign spreads: credit premia, liquidity premia and convenience yields. We find...

In the aftermath of the euro-area sovereign debt crisis, several commentators have questioned the favourable treatment of banks' sovereign exposures allowed by the current prudential rules. In this paper, we assess the overall desirability of reforming these rules. We conclude that the...

The financing structure of the euro area economy has evolved since the global financial crisis with non-bank financial intermediation taking a more prominent role. This shift affects the transmission of monetary policy. Compared with banks, non-bank financial intermediaries are more responsive...

We introduce a two-country no-arbitrage term-structure model to analyse the joint dynamics of bond yields, macroeconomic variables, and the exchange rate. The model allows to understand how exogenous shocks to the exchange rate affect the yield curves, how bond yields co-move in different...

We introduce a two-country no-arbitrage term-structure model to analyse the joint dynamics of bond yields, macroeconomic variables and the exchange rate. The model allows to understand how exogenous shocks to the exchange rate affect the yield curves, how bond yields co-move in different...