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This paper aims at constructing potential output and output gap measures for the United Kingdom which are pinned down by macroeconomic relationships as well as financial indicators. The exercise is based on a parsimonious unobserved components model which is estimated via Bayesian methods where...
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We examine austerity in advanced economies since the Great Recession. Austerity shocks are reductions in government … purchases that exceed reduced-form forecasts. Austerity shocks are statistically associated with lower real GDP, lower inflation … advanced economies generates a multiplier consistent with the data. Counterfactuals suggest that eliminating austerity would …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963180
We examine austerity in advanced economies since the Great Recession. Austerity shocks are reductions in government … purchases that exceed reduced-form forecasts. Austerity shocks are statistically associated with lower real GDP, lower inflation … advanced economies generates a multiplier consistent with the data. Counterfactuals suggest that eliminating austerity would …
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the euro crisis. It presents new econometric estimates on the link between cumulative GDP growth and fiscal austerity … closely related to the harshness of fiscal austerity. Cumulative multiplier estimates are found to vary in a range from 1.4 to …, a reasonable approximation of the size of the output losses due to fiscal austerity in the euro area during 2011-2013 is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011778844
We present estimates of finance-adjusted output gaps which incorporate the information on the domestic and global credit cycles for a sample of emerging market economies (EMEs). Following recent BIS research, we use a state-space representation of an HP filter augmented with a measure of the...
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