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External shocks, trade margins, and macroeconomic dynamics
D'Addona, Stefano; Cavallari, Lilia - In: Economies 8 (2020) 1, pp. 1-26
This paper studies the role of the exchange rate regime for trade of new products. It first provides VAR evidence that a rise in external productivity shifts trade away from new products and more so in fixed regimes. Then, it presents a model with firm dynamics in line with this evidence. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013199636
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What's up with the Phillips curve?
Del Negro, Marco; Lenza, Michele; Primiceri, Giorgio E.; … - 2020
The business cycle is alive and well, and real variables respond to it more or less as they always did. Witness the Great Recession. In ation, in contrast, has gone quiescent. This paper studies the sources of this disconnect using VARs and an estimated DSGE model. It finds that the disconnect...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012241237
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Common and country specific economic uncertainty
Mumtaz, Haroon; Theodoridis, Konstantinos - 2015
We use a factor model with stochastic volatility to decompose the time-varying variance of Macro economic and Financial variables into contributions from country-specific uncertainty and uncertainty common to all countries. We find that the common component plays an important role in driving the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011306276
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The worst of both worlds : fiscal policy and fixed exchange rates
Born, Benjamin; D'Ascanio, Francesco; Müller, Gernot J.; … - 2019
Under fixed exchange rates, fiscal policy is an effective tool. According to classical views because it impacts the real exchange rate, according to Keynesian views because it impacts output. Both views have merit because the effects of government spending are asymmetric. A spending cut lowers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012118599
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Exchange rates and the information channel of monetary policy
Holtemöller, Oliver; Kriwoluzky, Alexander; Kwak, Boreum - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle - 2020
We disentangle the effects of monetary policy announcements on real economic variables into an interest rate shock … component and a central bank information shock component. We identify both components using changes in interest rate futures and … that a contractionary interest rate shock appreciates the dollar, increases the excess bond premium, and leads to a decline …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012295246
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Monetary policy and the relative price of durable goods
Cantelmo, Alessandro; Melina, Giovanni - 2015
findings survive three identification strategies and across subsamples. Then, they are rationalized via the estimation of a two …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010515460
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Uncertainty-dependent effects of monetary policy shocks : a new Keynesian interpretation
Castelnuovo, Efrem; Pellegrino, Giovanni - 2017
milder macroeconomic responses to a monetary policy shock estimated with our VAR in presence of high uncertainty. A version …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011781355
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Oil prices and the dynamics of output and real exchange rate
Meenagh, David; Minford, Patrick; Oyekola, Olayinka - 2015
We examine the role of oil price shocks in effecting changes both at the aggregate and sectoral levels using an estimated dynamic stochastic equilibrium open economy model. Our main finding is that energy price shocks are not able directly to generate the magnitude of the economic downturn...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011471615
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The changing transmission of uncertainty shocks in the US : an empirical analysis
Mumtaz, Haroon; Theodoridis, Konstantinos - 2014
develop an extended Factor Augmented VAR model that simultaneously allows the estimation of a measure of uncertainty and its … shock has remained fairly stable. Simulations from a non-linear DSGE model suggest that these empirical results are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010472799
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Estimating time-varying DSGE models using minimum distance methods
Giraitis, Liudas; Kapetanios, George; Theodoridis, … - 2015
Following Giraitis, Kapetanios, and Yates (2014b), this paper uses kernel methods to estimate a seven variable time-varying (TV) vector autoregressive (VAR) model on the data set constructed by Smets and Wouters (2007). We apply an indirect inference method to map from this TV VAR to time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011405253