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the pre-1980 period. Measuring expectations of future monetary policy rates conditional on a news shock suggests that the …
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A number of studies have found that news shocks account for a large part of the aggregate fl uctuations of the main macroeconomic variables.We show that when taking rational expectations into consideration there is a limit on the size of the variance of the news shocks,which has not been...
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. We document two new facts using VAR methods. First, a (positive) shock to future TFP generates a significant decline in …
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