What the market thinks is most likely to occur is not necessarily what the market expects to occur. This note explains why most of the surveys of federal funds rate outlook deviate substantially from the true market expectation, especially as the forecast horizon increases. Surveys often ask...

The emergence and persistence of basis spreads in cross-currency basis swaps (CCBSs) since the global financial crisis have become a mystery in international finance, as they violate the longstanding principle of covered interest parity (CIP). We argue that the phenomenon is no mystery but...

It is almost self-evident that capital markets can thrive only in a benign macroeconomic environment. What is often overlooked is that malign macro factors such as inflation and government debt, provided that they are kept under control, can have their bright sides. Previous studies typically...

This note ranks the sensitivities of emerging market economies' (EMEs') bond fund flows to changes in the US monetary stance and global risk aversion. Based on the sensitivities, we draw heat maps to indicate the economies that are more likely to suffer large outflows. We find that bond fund...