Civilians who have fled violent conflict and settled in neighboring countries are integral to processes of civil war … violence. In a survey of 1,120 Syrian refugees in Turkey conducted in 2016, we use experiments to examine attitudes towards two … critical phases of conflict termination - a ceasefire and a peace agreement. We test the malleability of refugees' attitudes to …

are relevant to forecasting inflation. The set of top forecasts often includes forecast combinations, tree-based methods …In this paper, we explore machine learning (ML) methods to improve inflation forecasting in Brazil. An extensive out …-of-sample forecasting exercise is designed with multiple horizons, a large database of 501 series, and 50 forecasting methods, including new …