What would you do if you were invited to play a game where you were given $25 and allowed to place bets for 30 minutes on a coin that you were told was biased to come up heads 60% of the time? This is exactly what we did, gathering 61 young, quantitatively trained men and women to play this...

Home Bias refers to the tendency to invest more heavily in one's domestic equity market than global market-value proportions would suggest. Whether or not home-biased investing makes sense, the fact is that people in pretty much every country do it. This article addresses the question of whether...

It’s easy to overlook the fact that, in thinking about investment risk, we are implicitly making a choice about the benchmark against which risk is measured. It’s a convention, which we often take for granted, to use our local hard currency as the risk-less benchmark – but this choice,...

The bedrock of financial economics is that there should be a tradeoff between risk and reward: an investment with low risk should have a low expected return, while one that could make you rich should also be one which could lose you a lot of money. A lot of research in finance is focused on...

This study tested the unbiased pricing hypothesis, the theory of storage, and the ability of past futures’ prices to forecast future changes in spot prices in the copper, aluminum, nickel and lead markets for the period October 2011 through May 2021. Wavelets and a time-varying parameter model...

The central question addressed in this note is whether it is better to sell (and re-purchase) appreciated assets now and pay today's long-term capital gains tax rate, or wait to realize gains in the future and pay a likely higher capital gains tax rate. The authors argue that a framework based...

Is it theoretically legitimate for an investor to attempt to outperform the market index? Or is the investor simply deluding himself? The purpose of this paper is to apply the new Theory of Rational Beliefs (RB) to demonstrate the following result: Even when all agents have symmetric...

The intriguing findings by Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992, BLL hereafter), that some simple technical trading rules were profitable on Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), have been replicated in many other markets with similar results, and triggered debate on market efficiency. In this...

The intriguing findings by Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992, BLL hereafter), that some simple technical trading rules were profitable on Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), have been replicated in many other markets with similar results, and triggered debate on market efficiency. In this...