This paper proposes a framework for studying the boom and bust in Finland in the late 1980s and early 1990s. We develop a small open economy DSGE model with balance sheet-constrained firms à la BGG and calibrate it to the Finnish economy. We use the model to simulate three events that are...

This paper uses an extension of the Euro-Sting single-index dynamic factor model to construct short-term forecasts of quarterly GDP growth for the euro area, as also including financial variables as leading indicators. From a simulated real-time exercise, the model is used to investigate the...

This paper provides early assessments of current U.S. Nominal GDP growth, which has been con- sidered as a potential new monetary policy target. The nowcasts are computed using the exact amount of information that policy makers have available at the time predictions are made. However, real time...

We show that the single-index dynamic factor model developed by Aruoba and Diebold (Am Econ Rev, 100:20-24, 2010) to construct an index of US business cycle conditions is also very useful for forecasting US GDP growth in real time. In addition, we adapt the model to include survey data and...

This paper investigates the properties of distortions that manifest themselves as wedges in the equilibrium conditions of the neoclassical growth model across a sample of 22 OECD countries for the 1970–2011 period. The quantitative relevance of each wedge and its robustness in generating...

Forecasts for the two or three years after mid-2014 have converged on growth rates of real GDP in the range of 3.0 to 3.5 percent, a major stepwise increase from realized growth of 2.1 percent between mid-2009 and mid-2014. However, these forecasts are based on the demand for goods and services....

This paper examines the business cycle linkages that propagate industry-specific business cycle shocks throughout the economy in a way that (sometimes) generates aggregated cycles. The transmission of sectoral business cycles is modelled through a multivariate Markov-switching model, which is...

This paper provides a framework for the early assessment of current U.S. nominal GDP growth, which has been considered a potential new monetary policy target. The nowcasts are computed using the exact amount of information that policy-makers have available at the time predictions are made....

In this paper I make use of Bayesian methods to estimate a firm-specific capital DSGE model with Calvo price and wage setting. This approach allows me to firmly conclude that firm-specific capital is highly relevant in improving the fit of New Keynesian models to the data as shown by a large...