Low rates of inflation have been recorded in recent years, despite a decline in the unemployment rate. This phenomenon …

Low rates of inflation have been recorded in recent years, despite a decline in the unemployment rate. This phenomenon …

Using a New Keynesian Phillips curve, we document the rapid and persistent increase in the natural rate of unemployment … unemployment gaps. Through the lens of the model, the 2022-23 disinflation was driven by the expectation that the unemployment gap … will close through a progressive decline in 𝑢𝑡 ∗ and a rise in the unemployment rate. This implies that convergence to …

We propose that the natural rate of unemployment has an active role in the business cycle, in contrast to the … Phillips-curve framework of low - often extremely low - response of inflation to unemployment could be the result of fairly … most Phillips-curve studies, that conclude that inflation has little relation to unemployment. We suggest that the flat …