Purpose – This study aims to both test the asymmetric information hypothesis and explore the factors influencing the one‐ through four‐quarter‐ahead Federal Reserve inflation forecasts for 1983‐2002. Design/methodology/approach – Encompassing tests are used to examine the asymmetric...

Successful portfolio management strategies partly require accurate forecasts of term spreads. Such forecasts may also be useful for policymaking since the yield curve may contain predictive information for economic growth. This study asks whether experts accurately predict term spreads. We show...