Income growth in emerging economies has often been cited as a key driver of the past decade’s com-modity price boom—the longest and broadest boom since World War II. This paper shows that income has a negative and highly significant effect on real food commodity prices, a finding that is...

We use daily prices from individual futures contracts to test whether speculative bubbles exist in 12 agricultural markets and to identify whether patterns of bubble behavior exist over time. The samples begin as far back as 1970 and run through 2011. The findings demonstrate that all 12...

Corn prices experienced enormous volatility over the last decade. In this paper, we apply a structural vector autoregression model to quantify the relative importance of various contributing factors in driving corn price movements. The identification of the structural parameters is achieved...

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the technical efficiency and production risk in China's rice production and examine the effect of factor market reform on these two agricultural performance metrics. Design/methodology/approach: Using an unbalanced farm-level panel data with...

Price forecasts are critical to market participants when making production and marketing decisions and to policymakers who administer commodity programs and assess the market impact of domestic or international events. With the exceptionally volatile conditions experienced in the corn market...

Income growth in emerging economies has often been cited as a key driver of the past decade?s com-modity price boom?the longest and broadest boom since World War II. This paper shows that income has a negative and highly significant effect on real food commodity prices, a finding that is...