Este documento presenta un conjunto amplio de análisis para, en primer lugar, identificar el nivel de los riesgos sistémicos cíclicos en España y calibrar su impacto sobre la solvencia del sistema bancario y, adicionalmente, valorar los costes y beneficios del uso contracíclico de los...

Surveys of Professional Forecasters produce precise and timely point forecasts for key macroeconomic variables. However, the accompanying density forecasts are not as widely utilized, and there is no consensus about their quality. This is partly because such surveys are often conducted for...

How should researchers combine predictive densities to improve their forecasts? I propose consistent estimators of weights which deliver density forecast combinations approximating the true predictive density, conditional on the researcher's information set. Monte Carlo simulations confirm that...