This text was written as part of the project Modelling of Complex Systems for Public Policy. It reviews the classical authors who jointly contributed to establish the elements of what could constitute a "science of complexity". Based on the original writings of these authors, the text discusses...

We postulate a nonlinear DSGE model with a financial sector and heterogeneous households. In our model, the interaction between the supply of bonds by the financial sector and the precautionary demand for bonds by households produces significant endogenous aggregate risk. This risk induces an...

Models simulating household energy demand based on different occupant and household types and their behavioral patterns have received increasing attention over the last years due the need to better understand fundamental characteristics that shape the demand side. Most of the models described in...

Voting rules can be assessed from quite different perspectives: the axiomatic, the pragmatic, in terms of computational or conceptual simplicity, susceptibility to manipulation, and many others aspects. In this paper, we take the machine learning perspective and ask how 'well' a few prominent...

Long-term ratings of companies are obtained from public data plus some additional nondisclosed information. A model based on data from firms' public accounts is proposed to directly obtain these ratings, showing fairly close similitude with published results from Credit Rating Agencies. The...

This paper explores the use of neural networks to reduce the computational cost of pricing and hedging variable annuity guarantees. Pricing these guarantees can take a considerable amount of time because of the large number of Monte Carlo simulations that are required for the fair value of these...

This paper proposes a data-driven approach, by means of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), to value financial options and to calculate implied volatilities with the aim of accelerating the corresponding numerical methods. With ANNs being universal function approximators, this method trains an...

The purpose of this paper is to survey recent developments in granular models and machine learning models for loss reserving, and to compare the two families with a view to assessment of their potential for future development. This is best understood against the context of the evolution of these...

In actuarial modelling of risk pricing and loss reserving in general insurance, also known as P&C or non-life insurance, there is business value in the predictive power and automation through machine learning. However, interpretability can be critical, especially in explaining to key...

We propose a novel approach for loss reserving based on deep neural networks. The approach allows for joint modeling of paid losses and claims outstanding, and incorporation of heterogeneous inputs. We validate the models on loss reserving data across lines of business, and show that they...