Examining industrialized countries, the authors find that large deficits are not associated with higher inflation contemporaneously, nor are they associated with the emergence of higher inflation in subsequent years. This finding suggests that countries that can afford large deficits have built...

The authors analyze the usefulness of a new measure of nonfinancial leverage as an early warning indicator for financial instability and its consequences for economic growth.

This article shows how a new methodology for constructing the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) can be used to identify both the cyclical (medium-run) and trend (long-run) components of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

I provide three comparative statics involving the level of demand uncertainty for the newsvendor model, two of which lead to robust predictions. I show that for distributions of demand that are greater in the dispersive order, both the expected (censored) sales and share of inventory sold fall....

Examining all widely-sold products in a large, national scanner database, we find that seasonality in demand is large, pervasive across product categories, and heterogeneous in its timing. Yet at seasonal frequencies prices fluctuate little, and typically, countercyclically, falling as demand...

Measures of productivity reveal large differences across producers even within narrowly defined industries. Traditional measures of productivity, however, will associate differences in demand volatility to differences in productivity when adjusting factors of production is costly. I document...

We leverage an event-study research design focused on the seven costliest hurricanes to hit the US mainland since 2004 to identify the elasticity of unemployment insurance filings with respect to search intensity. Applying our elasticity estimate to the state-level Google Trends indexes for the...

Renewable energy and battery storage are seen as complementary technologies that can together facilitate reductions in carbon emissions. We develop and estimate a dynamic competitive equilibrium model of storage investment and operations to evaluate the adoption trajectory of utility-scale...