El Salvador has made major strides on several fronts since the peace accords of 1992. The near-term outlook has strengthened, although challenges remain. The authorities are intended to limit tax exemptions and subsidies, and raise priority of banking reforms this year. Discussions focused on...

Canada’s macroeconomic and policy performance has continued to outshine most other industrial countries, and its outlook remains favorable. The new government has pledged to maintain the strong social consensus in favor of fiscal surpluses, while aiming at enhancing incentives. The new...

This Selected Issues paper on Papua New Guinea reports that although economic cycles have generally paralleled the many mineral sector booms and busts, the downward trend in growth rates may reflect other factors. Papua New Guinea’s economy is dominated by a large labor-intensive...

The aim is to analyze the main channels of transmission for shocks from the global economy to Guyana and assess their specific spillover magnitudes. The paper documents the transmission channels of external shocks to the real economy and the financial sector, citing magnitudes and risks. It then...

Spain’s 2007 Article IV Consultation underlies that immediate growth prospects are bright and the central scenario is for a smooth landing but with appreciable downside risks. The Spanish economy enjoyed another year of remarkable growth in 2006, further extending its prolonged expansion....

GDP growth is likely to remain strong, although narrowly driven by a mining investment boom, increasing the economy’s vulnerability to terms of trade shocks. Outside the mining sector, growth is expected to be slow with still weak consumer confidence and a strong exchange rate weighing on...

This paper examines publicly listed Chilean firms’ performance during the 2008–09 crisis. In particular, it studies the effects from changes in external financing conditions, aggregate demand, and international trade on firms’ investment, sales, and profits, using...

Abstract: Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles...

Regional integration of Pacific Island countries (PICs) with Australia, New Zealand, and emerging Asia has increased over the last two decades. PICs have become more exposed to the region’s business cycles, and spillovers from regional economies are more important for PICs than from...

After skyrocketing over the past decade, commodity prices have remained stable or eased somewhat since mid-2011—and most projections suggest they are not likely to resume the upward trend observed in the last decade. This paper analyzes what this turn in the commodity price cycle may...