In this study, the causal relationships between inflation, output growth and uncertainty have been re-examined for the Turkish economy. Based on the system-GARCH methodology, estimation results reveal that for the 1987M01 2008M09 investigation period with monthly data, the mutual Granger...

The aim of this paper is to assess the consequences of banking crises on public debt. Using an unbalanced panel of 154 countries from 1980 to 2006, the paper shows that banking crises produce a significant and long-lasting increase in government debt. The effect is a function of the severity of...

We show that an extension of the Markov-switching dynamic factor models that accounts for the specificities of the day to day monitoring of economic developments such as ragged edges, mixed frequencies and data revisions is a good tool to forecast the Euro area recessions in real time. We...

This paper examines the sources of structural changes in output growth of China’s economy over 1987–92 using a decomposition method within the input-output (IO) framework. The model uses three comparable IO tables of 1987, 1990, and 1992 as the main data sources; it accounts for output...

The objective of the paper is to examine the impact of higher oil prices on Mexico's real GDP. Applying an open economy model, this paper finds that more money supply, more deficit spending, a higher real stock price, real appreciation of the peso, a lower US interest rate, and a lower expected...

The international prices of commodities have increased markedly in recent years, driven by growth in China, India and other developing countries, which has had a positive impact on the economies of exporting these products. This paper analyzes the dynamics of changes in the prices of commodities...

One of the most extended empirical stylized facts about output dynamics in the United States is the positive autocorrelation of output growth. This paper shows that the positive autocorrelation can be better captured by shifts between business cycle states rather than by the standard view of...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the causal relationships between inflation, output growth and their uncertainties in Malaysia. Design/methodology/approach – The modeling approach allows for structural breaks to avoid the masking of specific impacts. Findings – Based on...

In this paper we reexamine the linkages between output growth and real stock price changes for the G7 countries using a battery of non-parametric procedures to account for the impact of long-lagged observations. We find that correlation between growth and returns is detected at larger horizons...