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Underestimating randomness: Outcome bias in betting exchange markets
Merz, Oliver; Flepp, Raphael; Franck, Egon - 2021
This paper examines whether the outcome bias harms price efficiency in betting exchange markets. In soccer, the match … accurate prices for lucky and unlucky teams. Analyzing over 8,900 soccer matches, we find evidence that the prices are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012820013
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Forecasting soccer matches with betting odds : a tale of two markets
Hegarty, Tadgh; Whelan, Karl - 2023
We compare the properties of betting market odds set in two distinct markets for a large sample of European soccer …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013556864
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The effects of the clock and kickoff rule changes on actual and market-based expected scoring in NCAA football
Linna, Kenneth; Moore, Evan; Paul, Rodney J.; Weinbach, … - In: International Journal of Financial Studies : open … 2 (2014) 2, pp. 179-192
(NCAA) football seasons. The clock rule change in 2006 led to lower scoring which was not fully encompassed in the betting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010373272
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Sonic Thunder vs Brian the Snail : fast-sounding racehorse names and prediction accuracy in betting exchange markets
Merz, Oliver; Flepp, Raphael; Franck, Egon - 2019
This paper examines whether individuals' decision making is affected by fast-sounding horse names in a betting exchange market environment. In horse racing, the name of a horse does not depend on the horse's performance and is thus uninformative. If positive affect towards fast-sounding horse...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012209202
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The wisdom of no crowds: the reaction of betting markets to lockdown soccer games
Hegarty, Tadgh; Whelan, Karl - 2022
Covid-19 pandemic led to European soccer matches being played without spectators. We show that betting markets adjusted … accurate over a large sample of soccer matches subsequently played without spectators even though the earliest games appeared …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013191361
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NFL Betting Market Efficiency, Divisional Rivals, and Profitable Strategies
Shank, Corey A. - 2019
gambling market. The results show that games against division rivals have a lower chance of the home team covering the spread …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012870878
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Market efficiency and censoring bias in college football gambling
Arscott, Robert - 2022
The team totals and point spread betting lines jointly predict team scores in college football games. The gambling …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014030116
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Disagreement and market structure in betting markets : theory and evidence from European soccer
Hegarty, Tadgh; Whelan, Karl - 2023
feature. We develop a version of the model for soccer matches and use these results to explain empirical findings on odds for … over 80,000 European soccer games from two different bookmaking markets. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014279650
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Forecasting soccer matches with betting odds : a tale of two markets
Hegarty, Tadgh; Whelan, Karl - 2023
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013557384
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Efficiency of online football betting markets
Angelini, Giovanni; De Angelis, Luca - In: International journal of forecasting 35 (2019) 2, pp. 712-721
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012300736