We show that unexpected changes in the trajectory of COVID-19 infections predict US stock returns, in real time. Parameter estimates indicate that an unanticipated doubling (halving) of projected infections forecasts next-day decreases (increases) in aggregate US market value of 4 to 11 percent,...

We show that unexpected changes in the trajectory of COVID-19 infections predict US stock returns, in real time. Parameter estimates indicate that an unanticipated doubling (halving) of projected infections forecasts next-day decreases (increases) in aggregate US market value of 4 to 11 percent,...

We show that unexpected changes in the trajectory of COVID-19 infections predict US stock returns, in real time. Parameter estimates indicate that an unanticipated doubling (halving) of projected infections forecasts next-day decreases (increases) in aggregate US market value of 4 to 11 percent,...

The world economies are highly integrated to each other. Events that occur in other economies has an impact on the stock market of a particular country. Many of the events act as financial signals and affects stock market. The purpose of this paper is to conceptualize the views and analysis of...

We consider the impact of the Covid19 Pandemic on major stock-markets. We first apply a structural break testing procedure in order to identify the date of initial impact. We then estimate the magnitude of the impact using an extended form of the GARCHX model. The overall impact is decomposed...

The COVID-19 outbreak slowed down global economic activities substantially, resulting in unrest in the financial markets, especially in the beginning of the pandemic outbreak. This study aims to investigate if COVID-19 caused abnormal returns in the US and the Chinese stock markets in the...