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an increasing number of countries. This paper analyses the performance of the German toll statistics for nowcasting … indicators one should not be overenthusiastic on the opportunities of the toll data as a nowcasting tool, though they surely mean …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010290799
exercise is performed, in which estimates for Belgium’s quarterly GDP are generated using a monthly dataset of 93 potential …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011506810
This dissertation focuses on describing and explaining business cycle dynamics. Motivated by the extraordinary strong economic downturn in 2008/2009, it emphasis the importance of modeling nonlinearities. This thesis should be regarded as a contribution to applied econometrics and can be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012157628
This paper evaluates whether publicly available daily news lead texts help nowcasting Swiss GDP growth. I collect …-based indicators. In a pseudo out-of-sample nowcasting exercise for Swiss GDP growth, the indicator outperforms a monthly Swiss … business cycle indicator if one month of information is available. Improvements in nowcasting accuracy mainly occur in times of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014374717
In this paper we use U.S. real-time vintage data and produce combined density nowcasts for quarterly GDP growth from a … of the predictive densities for U.S. GDP increase almost monotonically as new information arrives during the quarter …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143776
, MIxed DAta Sampling (MIDAS) models, mixed frequency VARs, and mixed frequency factor models. We also consider alternative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143818
mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) regressions. We consider both classical and unrestricted MIDAS regressions with and without an … autoregressive component. First, we compare the forecasting performance of the different MIDAS models in Monte Carlo simulation …. Some differences are instead more evident when the persistence is high, for which the ARMIDAS and the AR-U-MIDAS produce …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143848
and thereby shape aggregate economic fluctuations. Traditional nowcasting approches have to a relatively little degree … decomposed into daily news topics and used to nowcast quarterly GDP growth. Compared with a big bank of experts, here represented …, if the statistical agency producing the GDP statistics itself had used the news-based methodology, it would have resulted …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143898
for Norwegian Mainland GDP and inflation. We combine the forecasts from three main types of models typically used at …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012144014
. However, official data on quarterly regional GDP in Germany are not available, and hence, regional GDP forecasts do not play … an important role in public budget planning. We provide a new quarterly time series for East German GDP and develop a … forecasting approach for East German GDP that takes data availability in real time and regional economic indicators into account …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012146979