Showing 111 - 120 of 38,065
With recovery from the global financial crisis in 2009 and 2010, inflation emerged as a major concern for many central banks in emerging Asia. We use data observed at mixed frequencies to estimate the movement of Chinese headline inflation within the framework of a state-space model, and then...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012148654
is identified as the weekly growth rate of GDP. It turns out that the model is well suited to exploit the business cycle … information contained in alternative highfrequency data. GDP is tracked timely and accurately during the Corona crisis and past …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012546043
For the timely detection of business-cycle turning points we suggest to use mediumsized linear systems (subset VARs with automated zero restrictions) to forecast the relevant underlying variables, and to derive the probability of the turning point from the forecast density as the probability...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010233998
This paper documents GDPNow, a "nowcasting" model for gross domestic product (GDP) growth that synthesizes the "bridge … equation" approach relating GDP subcomponents to monthly source data with the factor model approach used by Giannone, Reichlin …, and Small (2008). The GDPNow model forecasts GDP growth by aggregating 13 subcomponents that make up GDP with the chain …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010382060
leverage a novel real-time dataset to conduct an out-of-sample forecasting exercise for U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP …). MF-BVARs are shown to provide an attractive alternative to surveys of professional forecasters for forecasting GDP growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011485951
several practical advantages, we also document a better historical nowcasting performance of the new index. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010417490
movements of key macroeconomic variables, i.e., CPI inflation, GDP, employment, and an output gap. In particular, questions … output gap and adds information to the benchmark forecasts for GDP and employment. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010508347
that (a) regardless of the forecasting methods considered, PMIs are useful for nowcasting, but their value added diminishes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010438196
We produce predictions of the current state of the Indonesian economy by estimating a Dynamic Factor Model on a dataset of 11 indicators (also followed closely by market operators) over the time period 2002 to 2014. Besides the standard difficulties associated with constructing timely indicators...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011404639
This paper describes a dynamic factor model for the Maltese economy. The model mainly serves as a tool to timely provide the Central Bank of Malta with nowcasts as well as short-term forecasts of the growth rate of the real gross domestic product, which in turn are used as an input in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012818645