Showing 121 - 130 of 38,336
We produce predictions of the current state of the Indonesian economy by estimating a Dynamic Factor Model on a dataset of 11 indicators (also followed closely by market operators) over the time period 2002 to 2014. Besides the standard difficulties associated with constructing timely indicators...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011404639
This paper describes a dynamic factor model for the Maltese economy. The model mainly serves as a tool to timely provide the Central Bank of Malta with nowcasts as well as short-term forecasts of the growth rate of the real gross domestic product, which in turn are used as an input in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012818645
crisis times. The main target variable is quarterly real GDP (RGDP) and we have collected a large and varied set of monthly … indicators as predictors. We use several mixed frequency models, such as unrestricted autoregressive MIDAS (UMIDAS-AR), three …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012590322
quarterly real GDP (RGDP) using several mixed-frequency models. These include a mixed dynamic factor model, unrestricted mixed … of GDP (manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and services) using a set of available monthly indicators by sector …. Furthermore, mixed-frequency dynamic factor models and unrestricted MIDAS perform well in terms of root mean squared errors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012887758
is identified as the weekly growth rate of GDP. It turns out that the model is well suited to exploit the business cycle … information contained in alternative highfrequency data. GDP is tracked timely and accurately during the Corona crisis and past …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012395297
This paper introduces the OECD Weekly Tracker of economic activity for 46 OECD and G20 countries using Google Trends search data. The Tracker performs well in pseudo-real time simulations including around the COVID-19 crisis. The underlying model adds to the previous Google Trends literature in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012420946
nowcasting and forecasting quarterly world GDP using mixed-frequency models. We find that a recently proposed indicator that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012306598
nowcasting performance compared to an autoregressive model. Moreover, we find that the adoption of machine learning techniques … improves substantially the accuracy of our predictions in comparison to standard linear mod-els. While the average nowcasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012262657
exercise is performed, in which estimates for Belgium's quarterly GDP are generated using a monthly dataset of 93 potential …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011584165
predict gross domestic product (GDP). We employ mixed-frequency models and real-time data to reassess the role of survey data …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011595370