Previous studies find that the interest rate term spread predicts real U.S. economic activity. We show that this relationship breaks down for the 1990s and suggest that its earlier success was due to high and volatile inflation. We find, however, that the high-yield spread (HYS) between "junk...

This paper uses a stylized model of financial intermediation to characterize the exact circumstances along various paths of economic growth, financial development, and liberalization that can trigger a financial crisis. It shows how to avoid financial crises through proper sequencing of various...

This paper presents a dynamic, stochastic game-theoretic model of financial fragility. The model has two essential features. First, interrelated portfolios and payment commitments forge financial linkages among agents. Second, iid shocks to investment projects’ operations at a single date...

In this paper a model of aggregate investment is derived which incorporates fixed investment costs and capital market imperfections on the micro-level. Aggregate investment reacts nonlinearily with respect to aggregate shocks to productivity and liquidity of firms. Employing non-parametric...

This paper argues that the linear price-dividend relationship as predicted in the Gordon model breaks down in regimes of high inflation and deflation. Using data for the US and the UK over the period from 1871 to 2002, nonlinear estimates support the prediction of the model.

This paper explores 35 years of the American business cycle with the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) as a monitoring tool using monthly data. It exhibits ten US time series, which offer reliable information to detect recessions in real time. It also assesses the performances of different and...

This paper explores the American business cycle with the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) as a monitoring tool using monthly data. It exhibits ten US time series which offer reliable information to detect recessions in real time. It also proposes and assesses the performances of different and...

This paper develops a new model of international private debt financing. It shows the possibility of discontinuity in the amount of financial intermediation when the intermediary is inefficient. The model suggests a mechanism that can generate the following sequence of events: A period of...

The bank lending channel theory posits that during monetary contractions banks restrict some firms’ loans, thus reducing their desired investment independently of interest rates. Previous research finds small firms reduce, while large firms accelerate, loan growth. We find that small firms...