En este trabajo discutimos los objetivos, organización e instrumentos del Banco de la República, enfatizando cómo estos factores afectan la toma de decisiones y la consistencia de las mismas. En vez de extrapolar mecánicamente las experiencias de otros países, nuestro análisis apunta hacia...

Sudden stops seem to create the perfect environment for disinflation, especially when central banks defend the exchange rate by increasing interest rates. We propose a variation of the output gap model that incorporates the sudden stop shock. The use of the model in policy analysis shows that...

El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar el drenaje de las reservas internacionales debido a los excesos monetarios(el llamado "efecto compensación"), en el contexto de la mayor flexibilización cambiaria colombiana del periodo 1990-2003. En este periodo el costo del arbitraje peso-dólar se ha...

Proponents of the so-called New Economy claim that it entails a structural change of the economy. Such a change, in turn, would require the central bank to rethink its monetary policy to the extent that traditional relationships between inf1ation and economic growth are no longer valid. But such...

Exchange market pressure (EMP) measures the pressure on a currency to depreciate. It adds to the actual depreciation a weighted combination of policy instruments used to ward off depreciation, such as interest rates and foreign exchange interventions, where the weights are their effectiveness....

Systemic banking crises often continue into recessions with large output losses (Reinhart & Rogoff 2009a). In this paper we ask whether the way Governments intervene in the financial sector has an impact on the economy's subsequent performance. Our theoretical analysis focuses on bank incentives...

This paper examines which macroeconomic and financial variables are most informative for the federal funds target rate decisions made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) from a forecasting perspective. The analysis is conducted for the FOMC decision during the period January 1990 - June...

We develop a macroeconomic framework where money issupplied against only few eligible securities in open marketoperations. The relationship between the policy rate,expected inflation and consumption growth is affected bymoney market conditions, i.e. the varying liquidity value ofeligible assets...

This discussion paper led to publication in (E.F.M. Wubben (Ed.)) 'Institutions and Regulation for Economic Growth? Public Interest versus Private Incentives', 2011, pp. 187-209, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. <P> In the analysis of the credit crisis of 2007-2010 a clear distinction should be made...</p>

This paper investigates the history of the shift from expert to model based monetary policy analysis at the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) in the postwar period up to the middle of the nineteen-eighties. For reasons that will become clear expert based reasoning at DNB was referred to as normative...