Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 194,761
Cover Image
Monetary regimes, the term structure and business cycles in Ireland, 1972-2018
Stuart, Rebecca - 2020
economies. The literature emphasizes the role of monetary policy for this predictive ability. Between 1972-2018, Ireland … when Ireland was a member of the EMS (1979-1998); and third, as a member of the euro area (1999-2018). Using dynamic probit … which the Central Bank of Ireland had any discretion to set interest rates based on domestic conditions. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012220374
Cover Image
The term structure, leading indicators, and recessions: evidence from Switzerland, 1974-2017
Stuart, Rebecca - In: Swiss journal of economics and statistics 156 (2020) 1/2, pp. 1-17
This paper studies the predictive power for recessions of the slope of the Swiss term structure using monthly data for … 1974-2017. Dynamic probit models indicate that the term structure contains information useful for predicting recessions for … horizons up to 19 months. Whether the economy is currently in recession or not is also useful for forecasting recessions. These …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012257468
Cover Image
Do Yield Curve Inversions Predict Recessions in the Euro Area?
Sabes, David; Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume - 2022
predict recessions in the euro area. However, there are two important limitations. First, the forecasting capability of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013289229
Cover Image
The term structure, leading indicators, and recessions: Evidence from Switzerland, 1974-2017
Stuart, Rebecca - In: Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics 156 (2020) 1, pp. 1-17
This paper studies the predictive power for recessions of the slope of the Swiss term structure using monthly data for … 1974-2017. Dynamic probit models indicate that the term structure contains information useful for predicting recessions for … horizons up to 19 months. Whether the economy is currently in recession or not is also useful for forecasting recessions. These …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013205786
Cover Image
Real effects of sovereign bond market spillovers in the euro area
Gadatsch, Niklas - 2015
these countries, up to 0.8 percentage points (PP) Portugal and Ireland, 0.3 PP in Italy and 0.2 PP in Spain. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010512139
Cover Image
Real Effects of Sovereign Bond Market Spillovers in the Euro Area
Gadatsch, Niklas - 2016
these countries, up to 0.8 percentage points (PP) Portugal and Ireland, 0.3 PP in Italy and 0.2 PP in Spain …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012985874
Cover Image
Monetary policy after the crisis : a joint publication with the National Bank of Poland
Gnan, Ernest (ed.); Kokoszcynski, Ryszard (ed.);  … - Conference Monetary Policy after the Crisis <2011, Warschau>; … - 2011
On 4 March 2011, SUERF – The European Money and Finance Forum and the National Bank of Poland jointly organised a conference on the theme of: "Monetary Policy after the Crisis". Following a call for papers with a large number of submissions, the scientific committee selected 9 papers, which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011710723
Cover Image
Monetary policy and asset price overshooting: a rationale for the Wall/Main Street disconnect
Caballero, Ricardo J.; Simsek, Alp - 2022
We analyze optimal monetary policy and its implications for asset prices, when aggregate demand has inertia and responds to asset prices with a lag. If there is a negative output gap, the central bank optimally overshoots aggregate asset prices (asset prices are initially pushed above their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013093040
Cover Image
Natural yield curve : the case of Indonesia
Bary, Pakasa; Affandi, Yoga; Harahap, Berry A.; … - In: Contemporary economics 14 (2020) 2, pp. 182-200
The purpose of this study is to estimate the natural yield curve for an emerging economy, with Indonesia as a case study. The estimation is done by a two-stage approach, namely, the decomposition of the yield curve component through a dynamic Nelson-Siegel model, the results of which are then...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012237403
Cover Image
Inflation risk premia in the US and the euro area
Hördahl, Peter; Tristani, Oreste - 2010
We use a joint model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics to estimate inflation risk premia in the United States and the euro area. To sharpen our estimation, we include in the information set macro data and survey data on inflation and interest rate expectations at various future...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008746583