We develop a time-varying transition probabilities Markov Switching model in which inflation is characterised by two … regimes (high and low inflation). Using Bayesian techniques, we apply the model to the euro area, Germany, the US, the UK and … switches between inflation regimes. Thus money growth provides an important early warning indicator for risks to price …

This paper examines the forecasting performance of a broad monetary aggregate (M3) in predicting euro area inflation … even in the period of the financial and economic crisis. Monetary indicators are useful to predict inflation at the longer … money and inflation, central banks should implement exit strategies from the current policy path, as soon as the financial …

indicators in predicting euro area HICP inflation out-of-sample over the period first quarter 1999 till third quarter 2006 …

We develop a time-varying transition probabilities Markov Switching model in which inflation is characterised by two … regimes (high and low inflation). Using Bayesian techniques, we apply the model to the euro area, Germany, the US, the UK and … switches between inflation regimes. Thus money growth provides an important early warning indicator for risks to price …