Vector autoregressions with Markov-switching parameters (MS-VARs) offer dramatically better data fit than their constant-parameter predecessors. However, computational complications, as well as negative results about the importance of switching in parameters other than shock variances, have...

The literature on treatment effects focuses on gross benefits from program participation. We extend this literature by developing conditions under which it is possible to identify parameters measuring the cost and net surplus from program participation. Using the generalized Roy model, we...

This paper examines the dynamic causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Ghana within a trivariate ARDL framework, for the period 1971–2012.The paper obviates the variable omission bias, and the use of cross-sectional techniques that characterise most existing...

Evidence in favour of the monetary model of exchange rate determination for the South African Rand is at best mixed. A co-integrating relationship between the nominal exchange rate and fundamentals forms the basis of the monetary model. With the econometric literature suggesting that it is the...

We investigate the stock market comovements in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, Hong Kong, Japan, Russia, South Africa, the UK, and the USA, both at the market and sectoral level in 2000-2010. Using multivariate GARCH models, our results suggest that the correlation among equity...

Resumo: São testadas duas formas distintas de assimetria cíclica, a deepness e a steepness, através da aplicação do teste do coeficiente de enviesamento e do teste triples. A assimetria é analisada em vinte e três países, segundo uma perspectiva secular do PIB real per capita (1820/70 a...

This paper identifies the ex ante factors of currency speculation based on the experience of Hong Kong’s three episodes in 1988, 1998 and 2007. The dynamic conditional correlation models are used to study the inter-temporal interactions among the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Index futures and...

This article uses automatic model selection procedures, based on the gernal-to-specific approach, to investigate inflation in China. A novelty of this article is the use of a technique called impulse indicator saturation which allows us to uncover instabilities and to specify a general model and...

This paper provides a characterisation of U.S. monetary policy within a generalized Taylor rule framework that accommodates uncertainties about the duration of policy regimes and the specification of the rule, in addition to the standard parameter and stochastic uncertainties inherent in...