The production planning with renewable resources faces several special problems compared tocommon planning methods with inputs which are “always available”. Due to their unsteadiness ingrowth, external influences like weather and natural resources and specific transport and...

Mit den gewonnenen Erkenntnissen im Hinblick auf die bislang als Periodentafel angelegte Heubeck- Richttafel können nun die Annahmen der Prognoserechnung, die in der Literatur zur Analyse im Rahmen der betrieblichen Altersversorgung verwendet werden, korrigiert werden. Erstens muss...

The science/public/policy relationship is subject to deep changes. Taking these changesas a starting point, the following paper examines the changing foresight landscape in theEuropean Union, both from an institutional and from a methodological perspective. Thenecessity for a reorganisation of...

Macroeconomic risk assessments play an important role in the forecasts of manyinstitutions. However, to the best of our knowledge their performance has notbeen investigated yet. In this work, we study the Bank of England’s risk forecastsfor inflation. We find that these forecasts do not...

In this papaer, we put DSGE forecasts in competition with factor forecasts. We focus on these two models since they represent nicely the two opposing forecasting philosophies. The DSGE model on the one hand has a strong theoretical economic background; the factor model on the other hand is mainly...

This paper discusses pooling versus model selection for now- and forecasting in the pres-ence of model uncertainty with large, unbalanced datasets. Empirically, unbalanceddata is pervasive in economics and typically due to di¤erent sampling frequencies andpublication delays. Two model classes...

This paper reviews the usefulness of monetary conditions in the euro area as leading indicators for aggregate demand conditions. Monetary conditions are measured with the MCI concept proposed by the Bank of Canada, and with the yield spread. A central result is that causality runs in both ways...

In diesem Papier werden eine Reihe von Frühindikatoren für die Entwicklung der Ausrüstungs-, Wirtschaftsbau- und Wohnungsbauinvestitionen in Deutschland untersucht. Die Indikatoren werden auf Basis theoretischer Erwägungen oder wegen ihres technischen Zusammenhangs zur Investitionstätigkeit...