The aggregation of consistent individual judgements on logically interconnected propositions into a collective judgement on the same propositions has recently drawn much attention. Seemingly reasonable aggregation procedures, such as propositionwise majority voting, cannot ensure an equally...

Many decision problems in various fields of application can be characterized as diagnostic problems trying to assess the true state (of the world) of given cases. The investigation of assessment criteria improves the initial information according to observed signal outcomes, which are related to...

We compare several models for Bear Stearns' credit default swap spreads estimated via a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The Bayes Factor selects a CKLS model with GARCH-EPD errors as the best model. This model captures the volatility clustering and extreme tail returns of the swaps during...

The price-to-rent ratio, a common yardstick for the value of housing, is difficult to estimate when rental properties are poor substitutes of owner-occupied homes. In this study we estimate price-to-rent ratios of residential properties in two major cities in China, where urban high-rises...

S. James Press's many contributions to statistical research, lecturing, mentoring students, the statistics profession, etc. are summarized. Then some new developments in Bayesian analysis are described and remarks on the future of Bayesian analysis are presented.

This paper provides a new model that disentangles firm effects from persistent (time-invariant/long-term) and transient (time-varying/short-term) technical inefficiency.

Education is a well-known driver of (entrepreneurial) income. The measurement of its influence, however, suffers from endogeneity suspicion. For instance, ability and occupational choice are mentioned as driving both the level of (entrepreneurial) income and of education. Using instrumental...

We propose a new approach to deal with structural breaks in time series models. The key contribution is an alternative dynamic stochastic specification for the model parameters which describes potential breaks. After a break new parameter values are generated from a so-called baseline prior...

This paper develops a Markov-Switching vector autoregressive model that allows for imperfect synchronization of cyclical regimes in multiple variables, due to phase shifts of a single common cycle. The model has three key features: (i) the amount of phase shift can be different across regimes...

A recurring puzzle to many academics and some policymakers is why impact evaluations, which have become something of a cottage industry in the development field, have so little impact on actual policymaking. In this paper, I study the impact of impact evaluations. I show, in a simple Bayesian...