growth, inflation, and unemployment over 1985-2020, we find pervasive overreaction to news at most of the monthly forecast …

We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration's projections for cost rate, trust …

Rational respondents to economic surveys may report as a point forecast any measure of the central tendency of their … tests of forecast rationality when the measure of central tendency used by the respondent is unknown. We overcome an …

property that as the forecast horizon shortens accuracy improves. On average, forecasters underpredict inflation, but this …-ahead forecasts but not for current year. Tests' results point to forecast inefficiency which is also evidenced by a tendency to … inflation rate and the extent of underprediction increases during recessions. The hypothesis of forecast efficiency is …

quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden- Württemberg …-indicator, pooled and factor forecasts in a pseudo real-time setting. Our results show that we can significantly increase forecast …

Macroeconomic risk assessments play an important role in the forecasts of many institutions. A risk forecast is related … to the potential asymmetry of the forecast density. In this work, we investigate how the optimality of such risk … possible. In general, tests for macroeconomic risk forecast optimality tend to have at best moderate power given the …