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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014430822
This paper constructs internationally consistent measures of macroeconomic uncertainty. Our econometric framework extracts uncertainty from revisions in data obtained from standardized national accounts. Applying our model to quarterly post-WWII real-time data, we estimate macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012546034
This paper constructs internationally consistent measures of macroeconomic uncertainty. Our econometric framework extracts uncertainty from revisions in data obtained from standardized national accounts. Applying our model to quarterly post-WWII real-time data, we estimate macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012831107
uncertainty shocks as endogenous variables. In this paper we consider the possible impact of measurement error in the uncertainty … shock proxies on the estimated impulse responses from these SVAR models. We show via a Monte Carlo experiment that … measurement error can result in attenuation bias in the SVAR impulse responses. In contrast, the proxy SVAR that uses the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009784657
-robust approach is proposed to construct estimation and inference. Thirdly, this paper suggests a procedure to derive theory …, and there is always the risk of retaining structural parameters with implausible implications. This paper imposes bounds … the FEVD tend to remove unreasonable implications, increase estimation precision, sharpen and also alter the inference of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012037315
We propose a simple modification of Hamilton’s (2018) time series filter that yields reliable and economically meaningful real-time output gap estimates. The original filter relies on 8 quarter ahead forecast errors of a simple autoregression of real GDP. While this approach yields a cyclical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012233667
What are the effects of beliefs, sentiment, and uncertainty, over the business cycle? To answer this question, we develop a behavioral New Keynesian macroeconomic model, in which we relax the assumption of rational expectations. Agents are, instead, boundedly rational: they have a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012294890
We provide novel evidence that technological news and uncertainty shocks, identified one at a time using VAR models as in the literature, are correlated; that is, they are not truly structural. We then proceed by proposing an identification scheme to disentangle the effects of news and financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011967370
The paper compares one-period ahead forecasting performance of linear vector-autoregressive (VAR) models and single-equation Markov-switching (MS) models for two cases: when leading information is available and when it is not. The results show that single-equation MS models tend to perform...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013147524
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012666895