-cycle states. We show that forecasts for recessions are subject to a large negative systematic forecast error (forecasters … overestimate growth), while forecasts for recoveries are subject to a positive systematic forecast error. Forecasts made for … expansions have, if anything, a small systematic forecast error for large forecast horizons. When we link information about the …

) exploring the role that measures of expectations can play in forecasting inflation. While it is households' and firms' inflation … has been on surveys of professional forecasters and on market-based indicators.Regarding the anchoring of inflation …This paper summarises the findings of the Eurosystem's Expert Group on Inflation Expectations (EGIE), which was one of …