This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty around point forecasts for GDP, inflation and house prices …

-release data. Forecast revisions and forecast errors are analyzed, and the results show that the forecasts are not systematically … final forecast revision in the current quarter is generally downward biased for almost all countries. Overall, the … differences in mean forecast errors are minor when using real-time data or pseudo-real-time data and these differences do not …

find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB's SPF … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … useful information. By contrast, incorporating expectations derived from financial market prices or those of firms and …