measures in forecasting headline inflation. …This paper reinvestigates the performance of trimmed-mean inflation measures some 20 years since their inception … CPI - an extreme trim that holds conceptual and computational advantages. We conclude with a simple forecasting exercise …

forecast performances. We argue that these micro data facts are qualitatively in line with recent models in which expectations …We use the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters to characterize the dynamics of expectations at the micro level. We … find that forecasters (i) have predictable forecast errors; (ii) disagree; (iii) fail to systematically update their …

the point that using the past consensus forecast to form expectations is a reasonable thing to do if a forecaster is not …We propose a simple model of expectation formation with three distinct deviations from fully rational expectations. In … particular, forecasters’ expectations are sticky, extrapolate the most recent news about the current period, and depend on the …