New Keynesian theory identifies a set of principles central to the design and implementation of monetary policy. These … principles rely on the ability of a central bank to manage expectations precisely, with policy prescriptions typically derived … whether central banks can influence expectations with as much control as previously thought. In this paper, we survey the …

interest rate rule, raising the possibility of inefficient fluctuations due to the dependence of expectations on extraneous … combine forward looking expectations and predetermined variables. We consider a variety of specifications that incorporate …

This paper analyzes the time-varying credibility of the Fed's inflation target in an empirical macro model with … across monetary policy regimes. I find that imperfect credibility is pronounced during the Volcker Disinflation and to a …-term inflation expectations of professionals with the perceived inflation target. …

The adaptive learning approach has been fruitfully employed to model the formation of aggregate expectations at the … macroeconomic level, as an alternative to rational expectations. This paper uses adaptive learning to understand, instead, the … formation of expectations at the micro-level, by focusing on individual expectations and, in particular, trying to account for …

Economic theory predicts that intertemporal decisions depend critically on expectations about future outcomes. Using … of expectations for output growth, inflation, and the policy rate. We show that a simple unobserved components model of … the trend and cycle explains the joint behavior of both consensus measures of expectations and the observed disagreement …