, and entry points to mainstreaming citizen engagement in fragility,conflict, and violence (FCV) contexts. It does not …

Policymakers can take actions to prevent local conflict before it begins, if such violence can be accurately predicted … decades of fine-grained violence data by type, alongside hundreds of annual risk factors. We predict violence one year ahead … with a range of machine learning techniques. Models reliably identify persistent, high-violence hot spots. Violence is not …

experience situations of fragility, conflict, and violence. The government may have its own views on how and when to tackle the … long-term development challenges, including early engagement and a sustained presence in conflict-affected areas, as well …

and Libya), this report maps conflict networks and the evolution of rivalries and alliances in 21 North and West African … relationships across actors in conflict. Finally, the report analyses the impact of military interventions on the re‑composition of …

One-fifth of the world's population lives in countries affected by fragility, violence and conflict, impeding long … major increases in violence, that these effects persist for up to six months, and that larger firms are more responsive to … violence. The paper concludes with a discussion of potential mechanisms, firms' strategic adaptations, and implications for …