We show that over the period 1960-1997, the range comprised between the 30th and the 85th percentiles of the world income distribution expressed in terms of GDP per capita invariably scales down as a Pareto distribution. Furthermore, the time path of the power law exponent displays a negatively...

Some agent-based models for growth and allocation of resources are described. The first class considered consists of conservative models, where the number of agents and the size of resources are constant during time evolution. The second class is made up of multiplicative noise models and some...

We consider the problem of the statistical uncertainty of the correlation matrix in the optimization of a financial portfolio. We show that the use of clustering algorithms can improve the reliability of the portfolio in terms of the ratio between predicted and realized risk. Bootstrap analysis...

Are expansions and recessions more likely to end as their magnitude increases? In this paper we apply parametric hazard models to investigate this issue in a sample of 16 countries from 1881 to 2000. For the total sample we find evidence of positive magnitude dependence for recessions, while for...

The aim of this paper is to assess whether the data-generation process of the GDP can be interpreted by means of a nonlinear model instead of a linear one. We model the first differences of logarithmic real GDP data with constant parameters for those European countries (France, Germany, Italy,...

In this paper we provide a general characterization of diffusion processes, allowing us to analyze both risk-sharing and contagion effects at the same time. We illustrate the relevance of our theory with reference to the subprime mortgage crisis and more in general to the processes of...

This paper investigates some central issues of monetary policy by offering a model in which a central bank tries to stabilize fluctuations in aggregate output and inflation in an adaptive complex economy. We resort to evolutionary algorithms to model the central bank behaviour under discretion,...

Our analysis, conducted using the GDP and the GDP deflator time series (OECD source; 1960–2001) for the G7 countries, shows the robustness of the negative covariance between the GDP and its deflator, but only over long run horizons. Through wavelet decomposition we evaluate the price–output...